Posted by: climatewonk | March 29, 2008

Accumulated departure from logic

Over at Watts Up With That, a paper claiming to show that there is some spooky relationship between accumulated departure from average number of sunspots and solar irradiance and climate change is presented.

Sunspot numbers since 1700 were plotted as accumulated departure from average in order to compare them with weather variables. The sunspot number index indicates a declining trend for the 1700 to 1935 period and an increase from 1935 to 2008. The eleven-year cycle is clearly visible.

Here is the table:


Looks pretty convincing to the uneduated or layperson, right? Look how that graph declines until it reaches a low, then it rises and rises — in synch with the recent increase in global temperature.

But wait — look a little closer. It’s currently as high as it was during — the Little Ice Age! The LIA started in 1650, and at that time, the graph shows that the ADA was the same as it was in the period when the LIA was taking place. According to what I’ve read, glaciers started to expand in 1550, and the first minimum of the LIA took place in 1650.

How could that graph be linked in any logical way to global warming if it was as high during the period when the globe experienced a general cooling?

Enquiring minds, you know, can detect BS when they see it.

Speaking of detecting BS, you should watch Hansen’s Bulldog demolish the paper.


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